Methodology

How Cappy certifies a play

Cappy is a rulebook, not a guru. The rules are public; the AI applies them to every college football and NFL board, without getting tired or falling in love with a team.

The three rules

A play is certified only when all three hold.

RULE 01

Documented splits

Ticket and money percentages from a quality source. No splits, no bet.

RULE 02

Line moves against the splits

The line moves against the ticket majority, or makes a large move on even tickets. Books are respecting someone sharper.

RULE 03

Independent confirmation

A second signal that is not the same news that moved the line. Two of three is a pass, not a half-play.

Sizing is part of the pick

Full

Certified, Tier 1 signal: reverse line movement or a ticket/money inversion.

Half

Certified, Tier 2 signal: a weather-conditional total or an information-window trigger.

Quarter

A moneyline sprinkle on a big underdog carrying 85%+ of the money.

Zero

Opinions and passes. Written down, never sized, and graded anyway.

Flat sizing: a full play is 1 to 2 percent of bankroll. No parlays, no "locks."

Signal tiers

  • Tier 1: reverse line movement (the line moves against the ticket majority) and ticket-vs-money inversions (far more money than tickets on one side).
  • Tier 2: weather-conditional totals confirmed by radar near kickoff, and information-window triggers like a game-time QB decision the market hasn't re-priced.
  • Tier 3: opinions, trends and published "sharp reports." Written down, never sized, and tracked to show whether they're noise.

Hard rules

  • No splits, no bet.
  • Frozen lines are ambiguous. Never bet them.
  • Never chase steam of 3 points or more.
  • Movement explained by news is already priced. Don't double-count it.
  • A ticket-to-money gap under 15 points is not an inversion.
  • Key numbers matter: 3 and 7 are sacred. Pick'em beats −1.5, and −3 beats −3.5.
  • Flat sizing, 1 to 2 percent of bankroll.

The weekly rhythm

CapBro covers college football and the NFL only. The daily card publishes around 6 AM ET. Tuesday: watchlist with triggers. Friday: certification. Then grade every play and update the rulebook. Every result goes on the public ledger, graded at the number we published.

What it isn't

CapBro is information and analysis. It is not a sportsbook, it doesn't take bets, and it can't promise outcomes. See responsible gambling.